The Future

This page provides summary information about the scenarios, based on endstate ranking and event likelihood voting by workshop particpants and web users of this tool. Desirability and Attainability positions of each scenario are based on the ranking data. The position in the column Expection is computed by summing up event likelihoods, weighted by the influence each event has on the scenario. Scenarios with likely positive events and unlikely negative events score higher. See Graphic Explanation for more detail. Also see Endstate Synthesis for how to combine scenarios.

Click on a scenario title to get more detail, including the five events with the greatest impact on expectation.

Endstate Desirability Attainability Expectation
C - Sustainable Life 1st 1st 1st

The Park is a model of sustainable, low carbon footprint rural lifestyle with local renewable energy, especially biomass heat, local food, and widespread broadband. Revitalization of the Park’s communities is the top priority, with emphasis on the arts, education, healthcare and public infrastructure upgrades. more

  1. 86.67
  2. 69.62
  3. 4.40
B - Usable Park 2nd 2nd 2nd

The economy and the environment beneficially reinforce each. Grow the economy by investing in a wide range of amenities and promotion for world class recreational tourism and attracting active retirees to settle here. Use the Park for the benefit of visitors and residents. more

  1. 64.81
  2. 67.69
  3. 3.20
E - Post “Big Government” 5th 3rd 3rd

Bottom-up, town-by-town economic development efforts try many different strategies. Some do well, some fail and disappear. Gaps widen between haves and have nots. more

  1. 35.66
  2. 59.93
  3. 2.55
D - Adirondack County 3rd 6th 4th

Government services are more centralized to reduce costs and improve effectiveness. Park-wide planning, promotion and branding are the norm. The fragmented Forest Preserve is consolidated. more

  1. 53.52
  2. 28.67
  3. 1.84
A - Wild Park 4th 4th 5th

The Park is managed under a strong interpretation of Article XIV “Forever Wild” that includes stricter private land use regulation and a hands-off approach to preserving the Forest Preserve. DEC and APA’s focus is preservation and enhancement of the wild experience, not revival of local economies. more

  1. 45.90
  2. 39.74
  3. 0.72
F - Adirondack State Forest 6th 5th 6th

External threats (e.g., climate change, invasives, health care costs, and demographic shifts in NYS) overwhelm the Park. Half of the Forest Preserve is made working State Forest in an attempt to forestall collapse in the heart of the Park. more

  1. 13.44
  2. 34.35
  3. -1.88