Graphic Explanation

Endstates describe hypothetical outcomes in 2037. They are not mutually exclusive. There are 6 in this framework. We ask you to rank order them on desirability & attainability.

A path of events that happen or don’t happen leading to an endstate is a scenario. There are about 130 events in 16 categories and they range from the near future to 10 or 20 years out. Some have already happened, most are hypothetical.

These elements are based on over 150 interviews and 14 workshops conducted between June 2011 and June 2012. We update them, and add new items, as evidence develops.

We track the likelihood of events (you can vote) to gain insight into which scenarios are happening. We log evidence about events (e.g., news links) to give you insight into their likelihood.

Please submit evidence yourself using the button on each event page.

Each event has been rated on the influence it would have on the development of each of the 6 endstates.

For example, if event #2 happened it would be bad for A and E but good for B and D and neutral for C and F.

Participants in the process also vote on the current likelihood of each event happening.

We scale influence by current likelihood to get an event’s impact. Highly likely events that are influential have a high impact. We sum impacts across event categories.